Friday, September 4, 2015

A Scenario where Donald Trump Wins the Republican Nomination

At the first Republican debate the first question by the Fox moderators was whether the candidates would pledge to support whoever the Republican nominee would ultimately be. Everybody dutifully said yes, except Donald Trump, who was conspicuously coy. 

Trump has said: "When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists."

He has come out against John McCain--the Grand Old Party stalwart--as a war hero, saying: "I hate to tell you: He's a war hero because he was captured, okay?"

So after the first Republican debate everyone wondered whether Trump would disappear; and the Republican establishment surely hoped he would.  But he didn't. He accused Megyn Kelly of being rude in her questioning because she had "blood coming out of her wherever," and the latest polling still has Trump on top of the heap with a significant lead.  RNC chairman Reince Preibus (he with the infamous Clint Eastwood empty chair in his office) paid homage to Trump by visiting him at Trump Tower.  After the meeting Trump signed a pledge of allegiance to the Party and reported that "The RNC has been absolutely terrific." Instead of successfully driving Trump off the stage,  it looks like Trump is being brought inside the fold. His favorability rating among Republicans is up 16 points

A few days ago, commenter Don Shearn said.... 
It is seemingly possible that Trump can win the Republican nomination. ... Trump says "I can build a wall. It is harder to build a 95 story building. " And Trump says, "I have a bigger heart that you do." By which he means he has given more money to charity.
It is very much like the The Wizard of Oz. Trump is pulling the strings of the media coverage. He talks about the polling constantly. So the media can keep the horse race entertaining. We know he has a brain because he went to Wharton. He has courage because he has engaged in twitter combat with Rosie Odonnell and Megyn Kelley. He has a heart because he gives to charity.
I dismissed the notion that Trump would ever poll anywhere near 40%.  BUT, says Sandy Levinson, with six or seven candidates in the race all the way to the convention, HE DOESN'T HAVE TO:
I am assuming that Trump could not possibly win a two-candidate race within the Republican Party, and perhaps he couldn't even prevail in a three-candidate showdown. But, at least right now, it seems far more likely to be seven or eight (Jeb!, Kasich, Walker, Paul, Carson (!), Cruz,Rubio, perhaps even Fiorina), and Trump seems to be a good bet to come in first unless one of the others unpredictably catches fire.
Gulp!  Sandy Levinson is hoping for a good old-fashioned floor fight at the Republican convention, which will be held July 18-21, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.


1 comment:

  1. Thanks for the shout out. In the true manner of punditry, I will now change my theory again. For the quick recap.
    1. Trump can't win because the evangelicals will consider him a sinner and not vote for him. The polling has shown otherwise.
    2. Trump can win because "he gets things done." And the angry people out there respect him for that.
    3. Trump won't win because he has signed the pledge to support any republican nominee. Now, he leaves the sphere of the angry outsiders and becomes just another RINO with a lack of core conservative positions.
    4. How cool would a brokered republican convention be!