Thursday, November 3, 2016

The Uncertain Science of Election Forecasting?

Commandress Clinton?/Huffington Post

Compare these radically different assessments for the electoral chances of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Florida and North Carolina today.  

Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a 51% chance of winning Florida.  

The Upshot, on the other hand gives Donald Trump a mere 33% chance of winning Florida. 

The Upshot gives Hillary Clinton a 74% chance of winning North Carolina. 

Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton a mere 48.5% chance of winning North Carolina. 

I will be watching the outcome of these particular states with interest next Tuesday! 

Is Nate Silver's star about to fade?  Will he remain infallible?  Here is Brad DeLong being critical of Silver. He's talking over my head, talking about bayensianism vs. smoothing, but as usual in entertaining fashion. 

Here is Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Forum. 

We'll all be wiser Tuesday night. And how about those Cubs?   

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